A follow-up to my earlier article
on Race Time Versus Class.
Race Sectional Time and Class
(Weight) are also linked, as shown by the graph above. As race
class increases the corresponding race last 600m sectional time
decreases. In this example, the Punting Form developed time Vs
class model for the last 600m sectional time in 1200m races
demonstrates a linear relationship with a correlation coefficient
of 0.962 (an acceptable value).
There are those who are adamant
that race time is a meaningless statistic when it comes to
determining the 'class' of particular race horses and their
performance. We have been able to show that 'on average', this is
certainly not the case.
Of course, there are challenges
in the application of these theories when it comes to comparing
(and eventually predicting) the performance of different race
horses, in different races, at different tracks. This is where it
is necessary to have accurate times (or what we like to call times
which are fit-for-purpose) and other statistical techniques to
account for prevailing racing conditions etc.